Trump is "TACO" on Immigration Too

Don't overreact to the USCIS memorandum about adjustment of status

Half my Twitter feed and one member of my household are panicking about the new USCIS memorandum about adjustment of status. They shouldn’t be.

Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) on his tariff policies. He announces enormous tariffs, markets fall, and within a few weeks he declares a deal¹.

You can see an analogous pattern in immigration policy.

The White House announces something dramatic and chaotic. The policy later gets narrowed or clarified. Sometimes this is because the administration pivots, and sometimes it is because the initial plan gets struck down by the courts.

For context, let’s look at 10 of the biggest immigration policies announced in Trump 2.0. Which of these are still in effect?

The majority of policies get watered down or struck down in court. One takeaway here is that - as many administrations have found before - it’s hard to make changes to the US immigration system.

Only 4 out of 10 are still in effect as originally announced. Three of them affect migrants who don’t have a strong lobby². The fourth, updating H-1B lottery wage-weighting, is pretty decent policy.

The flip side of this coin is that material changes in immigration policy are not always announced publicly. For example, adjudication of certain employment-based green card approvals changed significantly in fiscal year 2025.

Data comes from USCIS quarterly reports. This is only a subset of employment-based green cards.

Approval rates for extraordinary ability (EB-1A) green cards went from 73% to 53% within 6 months. Even after accounting for an increase in applications, it’s clear the administration has raised its bar for what constitutes “extraordinary ability” without announcing it publicly³.

But the overall point here is that when USCIS posts a memorandum saying green card applications will get more scrutiny, don’t panic. USCIS has already provided clarification that people who “provide an economic benefit…will likely be able to continue on their current path.”

It’s sensible to pay attention, and perhaps be a little worried. To some extent, causing fear is part of the point of these announcements⁴. But try not to over-index on any given statement. These things are getting hammered out in real time, and in some cases the public is learning at the same time as members of the administration.

1. The Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined the phrase in May 2025, after the “Liberation Day” tariffs. Wall Street traders will even make “TACO trades”, assuming that prices will rebound after tariff announcements.

2. The 19 country travel ban affects countries that make up ~5% of US immigration, and the other 2 affect refugees.

3. Interestingly, changes to EB-2 NIW adjudication were announced - by the Biden administration.

If you are interested in navigating any of these processes and want the most up-to-date info, get in touch with us at Lighthouse! (All opinions in this piece are my own)

4. And indeed, public backlash is a necessary feedback mechanism to let policymakers know when they have overstepped.